LOMA LINDA MD: Eight reasons to end the lockdowns now

Posted on April 12, 2020 7:41 am

NOTE: Medium.com, where Dr. Geach posted this article, took it down almost immediately, declaring it “under investigation.” We are reposting it in its entirely. Please read and decide if it should be censored or shared. 

By Jonathan Geach, M.D. and colleagues

We have already flattened the curve

We have gone from predictions of millions of deaths, to hundreds of thousands and now we are predicting about 60 thousand deaths. This is with the likely over reporting of death. Dr. Birx admitted the attribution of death to COVID-19 has been liberal (her word). If the death count were limited to deaths directly caused by COVID-19, it would likely be even lower than this.

There needs to be a clear reliable model that shows how many additional lives will be saved. The most effective time for social distancing is early in a pandemic. Lockdowns also slow the development of herd immunity, which helps a society move past the virus. We can still practice good hand hygiene, wear masks in public, and continue social distancing for the elderly and high risk, while we develop protective herd immunity for those most at risk. By the time the lockdowns began, COVID-19 had already been seeded in the US for months, limiting the effectiveness of the lockdowns in the first place as the virus was already widespread.

Economic collapse and unemployment are destroying families

Each day the shutdown continues, we are losing approximately one million jobs, as evidenced by 16.5 million initial weekly jobless claims in three weeks (since March 26). Many of these lost jobs will never return. If the lockdowns continue through April (essentially, a best-case scenario), we’ll be lucky if job losses are limited to 25 million. Many people see 6.6 million people as just a number , as Len Kieffer put it, it is the size of the state of Missouri. Twenty five million is almost the size of the state of Texas!

The 16.5 million jobs lost thus far are only counting people who have filed jobless claims that were processed through April 8, 2020; it’s likely that the real number is quite a bit higher than this. In addition, there are millions of people not-technically-unemployed who have seen their incomes plummet. One example would be so-called gig workers, such as Uber and Lyft drivers. It’s almost certain that realtors are suffering the same fate.

We have not overburdened the health care system

Although, the ER and ICU capacity has increased in many locations, overall healthcare system capacity has decreased dramatically, as all non-COVID and non-emergent care is being neglected. This has led to layoffs of healthcare workers and delays in care for countless patients, which will result in a range of negative consequences. Assuming the need for healthcare services has remained constant while availability of such services has plummeted, countless patients are not receiving the care they need in a timely manner. In medicine, timing is of the essence, so even receiving the same exact in the future comes at a price. Many important services are being delayed: blood donations, organ donations, screening colonoscopies, and many other elective procedures. It is very important to note that elective medical care is not useless medical care; rather, it’s simply meaningful and necessary medical care that is scheduled in advance and not performed on an emergency basis.

Suicide may kill almost as many people as COVID-19 this year

In 2018, there were 48,344 recorded suicides. Economic ruin results in a wide range of health problems, suicide, mental health issues, loss of health insurance, reluctance to visit doctors in light of financial hardship, and increases in substance abuse. This is on top of the delay in non-COVID care.

PPE was limited but is now becoming more available

This article is not meant to diminish the pain and horror this disease can bring to those who get it. I am a physician in one of the highest risk specialties for contracting the disease in the hospital. The lack of personal protective equipment (PPE) facing US healthcare workers is unfair and wrong. Yet, as the curve has flattened, it seems more hospitals have found adequate PPE. The CDC estimates a possible second wave would be at least 150 days from the end of the lockdown, possibly this fall. Ending the lockdowns would have no effect on the PPE for the current crisis. We would have plenty of time to prepare for a possible second wave.

The mortality was overestimated

The IHME model, as well as Dr. Fauci have recently decreased the likely deaths from this pandemic to around 60,000 from earlier estimates of 1–2 million.The early reports of 3–4% case fatality rate (CFR) are likely misleading. The numbers miss those who are asymptomatic or recovered at home without seeking testing. What we really need to know is the infection mortality rate (IFR).

Fortunately we have some good clues. Looking at the data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the infection fatality rate on the cruise ship was 1%. However, the average age of people on the cruise ship was much higher than the age of the average American. When you adjust for the differences in age between the cruise ship and America, you see that the IFR should be about 0.1%. There was a recent study out of Germany in the city of Gangelt where they tested 80% of the population, the IFR there was about 0.37%.

The way we are testing now, we cannot know how many people have been infected with COVID-19 since we are missing those who had the disease and recovered. Antibody testing is needed to know the true number of people who have been infected. There is a good chance this number is well above 10 million, which drives the IFR down even further.

Children are at almost no risk from this disease

The CDC estimates 37 to 187 children die every year, not from Covid-19, from the flu. This year we have lost 105 children from the flu. Yet, we have closed every school in America. Education is vitally important and a whole generation will miss a fourth of this school year. Closing schools also goes a long way towards limiting the development of herd immunity.

Authorities should show clear evidence regarding the benefits of indefinite lockdown

Those who want to continue the lockdown indefinitely should show clear evidence regarding the benefits of indefinite lockdown. There needs to be a clear reliable model that shows how many additional lives will be saved considering we have already flattened the curve and there is essentially no further risk of overwhelming the health care system. The previous models were wrong. The consequences of indefinite lockdown are quite staggering, to the tune of one million jobs lost per day.

 

Signed,
Jonathan Geach, M.D.
Ankur J Patel, M.D.
Jason Friday, M.D.
Lacy Windham, M.D.
Ashkan Attaran, M.D.
Jennifer Andjelich, D.N.P.

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Jim
Jim
2 years ago

Where are your sources Dr.? This article is not reputable.

Kevin
Kevin
2 years ago
Reply to  Jim

Jim, Which points are you claiming are incorrect? Please post them, and your sources to support it, so that we can believe you. Most of the liberal media ‘reports’ with partial or no sources, ALL THE TIME! Even the sources they do identify are pre-screened to only support their underlying propaganda. Do you object when they ‘report’ what is provably a know lie? If you claim this is unreliable, due some unspecified missing sources, yet you provide no specific claim nor source, have you not already convicted YOURSELF of doing exactly that? I hope that your two short sentences have… Read more »

DKP
DKP
2 years ago

Can only share facts…but these Drs. have acted quite irresponsibly (probably a part of the same group that shunned the Hippocratic Oath)–They have assumed because they are occasionally on the front line, they have all the facts. (Perhaps their investments are taking a huge hit due to our stymied economy and they are anxious to see that turnaround) Front liners have not been privy to everything. The truth is, if we would all comply–including creditors, landlords and banks, we could all make it through on the proposed relief funds. Greed must be thrown out the window in these circumstances–we can… Read more »

LBS
LBS
2 years ago

I had it back in January and it wasn’t that bad. I felt some shortness of breath and a dry cough that lasted about a week. Corona has no stomach problems, and i never felt like I couldn’t do manual labor on my property. Just worked a bit slower. I have had much worse flu’s before that lasted what seemed to be months But I have asthma and I used to get Pneumonia every winter when I lived in Chicago, so some shortness of breath doesn’t scare me much. Just part of my life. The Chinese Corona Virus has been… Read more »

joseph licata
2 years ago

my son got it and he is 19 and he was rushed to the hospital on low oxegen levels and a fever and shortness of breath ….then i caught it and it was very scary not to be able to catch my breath , i was drowning in my own fluids

i believe the lockdown was the best thing they ever did and i praise presdent trump for his awesome leadership

Linda Lee Jewels
Linda Lee Jewels
2 years ago

If lockdown ends too soon, the second wave will come.

DavidRoss
DavidRoss
2 years ago

And if it doesn’t end soon there won’t be much left to go back to.

ocwasp
ocwasp
2 years ago

…not the second wave – it’s the tail end of the first one for not being allowed to pass thru the herd like it ALWAYS does. Every year. The longer these restrictions stay in place, the longer this charade will continue. Think about it – people forcibly confined breathing the same air, day in & out, wearing some mask that’s two weeks old. Get outside, breathe fresh air and feel the sun on your face. This is your best insurance on staying healthy – regardless of flu season. If you’re older and have either health issues and/or a really crappy… Read more »

Kevin
Kevin
2 years ago

A second wave WILL come. But, Financial devastation has also already come and will rip through the country until most of its inhabitants are destroyed.

Hide if you are afraid, but the rest of the country will make their own choices on how to live and to provide for themselves

Beth
Beth
2 years ago

Please let everyone know that the reason WHY “authorities can’t show clear evidence regarding the benefits of indefinite lockdown” is because it was Already Factored IN to the estimates!!!

H. Marie Lindsey
H. Marie Lindsey
2 years ago

I have not seen anything that has presented things like these huge numbers of people dying. I remember the WWII days when traffic was much like today when we had gas rationing, but people were able to gather, there was no threat that a minute thing we cannot even see could invade us without our knowledge and lead possibly to our death. And if testing were available, would that mean testing every week or 14 days to see if in the time from the last testing the virus had not invaded our bodies. If distancing and covering our faces is… Read more »

Beth
Beth
2 years ago

Social distancing was already factored INTO the predictions!! So….NO!!! It hasn’t made an impact on the spread!!! I’m also questioning the test. Not sure, (haven’t had the time to truly research it), but I have read that the COVID-19 test will come up Positive even when folks don’t have it due to it being a test for MANY viruses of this type. ????????????

ocwasp
ocwasp
2 years ago
Reply to  Beth

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/04/08/corona-creating-illusion-of-pandemic-through-diagnostic-test/

Not to mention Birx and Faux-ci have publicly stated they define every death, no exceptions, is due to the baloney virus. Their asinine proclamations are extending the duration of what is normally a shorter flu season into the late spring or summer. This is not an accident.

Bud
Bud
2 years ago
Reply to  Beth

I was wondering about that too. Whether it was specific or general for coronavirus.

Kevin
Kevin
2 years ago

H Marie. “I have not seen anything that has presented things like these huge numbers of people dying”. Then you have not seen the annual flu, 60000 deaths last year. Or pneumonia, 83,000 us last year. Or cancer, 616 thousand deaths last year. Or suicides, 65000 deaths in 2018. Or auto accidents, or drug overdoses or the many others that have similar and higher mortality rates and effects on illness. This is actually an extremely moderate number of death and illnesses. If they cracked the common virus this way every year no one would leave their basement. Get over it,… Read more »

Michael F Dougherty
2 years ago

Once the new 5-minute tests are available, this begins to make sense. Personally, I would fine anyone with Coronavirus $1,000 if they are caught is a public area other than their home. Too harsh? Think about it. People who have the disease or think they may have the disease would stay at home so they don’t have to pay the fine. Problem solved.

Mac
Mac
2 years ago

Way to be a real thinker, Mr. Dougherty. 1) what is the test currently being used? 2)What did the Nobel-prize winning developer actually say his test could and could not be used for? 3) does this meet Koch’s 4 postulates for proving infectious disease cause and transmission? 4) what is the role of the Federal Reserve Bank in our national and world economy? If you are able to investigate and answer these questions with an open mind, you will probably be shocked. More than likely you won’t investigate, because 99% of people merely depend on socially approved sources for all… Read more »

Beth
Beth
2 years ago
Reply to  Mac

Truth

ocwasp
ocwasp
2 years ago
Reply to  Mac

Boom.

Kevin
Kevin
2 years ago
Reply to  Mac

ALWAYS QUESTION – NO ONE KNOWS EVERYTHING (except maybe me) The medical people are bery skilled in their field but out of touch with reality. They rely only on computer models and poor data. I give them credit, they got dishonest data from China, then saw something troubling, panicked and pressed the president to protect us from a potentially very bad situation. The Democrats like always, just see this as a crisis that they can use towards their agenda to destroy the Constitution and socialize the country. The liberal media, which is basically the Democrats with a Communications tool, already… Read more »

Kevin
Kevin
2 years ago

Michael Dougherty. $1000 fine?
Ok. If they (we) also apply a fine to;

flu carriers, HIV, SARS, non-working freeloaders, gang members, anti-constitution socialists, and everyone else whose actions do harm to others in the community.

Then I am in.

showandtell
showandtell
2 years ago

Looks like there was too much truth in the Loma Linda piece

tippermart
tippermart
2 years ago

Please share this as much as you. The Internet powers that be won’t.

Jolhn Steele
Jolhn Steele
2 years ago

The front line shock troops.Thanks People.. All of you ROCK !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lord Greystoke
Lord Greystoke
2 years ago

Loma Linda is a great hospital…

formwiz
2 years ago

Found your piece after it was censored.

Keep fighting, guys.

Nina Stemple
Nina Stemple
2 years ago

I wholeheartedly agree that we should end the lockdown. We are destroying millions of lives by continuing. Thank you for sharing this. Really messed up Medium took it down.

Jerry
Jerry
2 years ago

Sure they will be branded “virus deniers.”